It's January and every blogger is coming up with a predictions column; why the heck can't I get involved?
Prediction #1 -
Home Automation will still fail to gain traction in 2014. For a guy who loves gadgets, wants to automate routine tasks, and lives in a house, I sit at the center of the Venn Diagram of people clamoring for this technology to take off. But we're just not ready.
Take something as routine as unlocking a door. In the past year we've seen at least 4 vapor-ware projects trying to tackle this (Lockitron, August, Kevo, and Goji to rattle off a few). Only one is actually available to purchase and none will be able to solve my problem.
I have what's called an "interconnected deadbolt lock" and it's regulated by my HOA so I can't change the outside at all. An interconnected deadbolt essentially lets you turn the interior handle to disengage the deadbolt. It's actually a superior ergonomic design and offers an argument for added safety.
(The argument for added safety is that in a panic, someone attempting to exit the unit might not release the deadbolt and turn the door handle. The door would obviously not open and might exacerbate panic. "Why won't it open?!?") Did I mention that these interconnected deadbolts are actually required in certain buildings per code; namely nursing homes and apartment complexes...two ripe targets for lock automation if I can think of any.
Beyond automating door locks, there are still no good ways to automate window shades, lighting, or HVAC unless you have $40k to spend on a Crestron system.
I think systems that are actually on the market and people are talking about, almost exclusively from Nest, will whet whistles, but not create an industry this year.
Prediction #2 -
Money will continue to evolve. As a child, money was rectangular green paper in a birthday card. Today it's a number on a screen. My credit cards are simply numbers. Bank accounts...numbers. We're moving away from a physical currency for our day-to-day, be that good bad or indifferent.
In 2014, we will be hearing more of Bitcoin, and expect a deluge of products like Coin to help better manage all those numbers. I still expect to see Cash4Gold commercials, and authentic reproductions of old minted silver pieces advertised on late-night TV (actually not, see Prediction #4), but our wallets will first slim, then become digital, then merge completely with our phones.
Alternative point of sale systems like Square showed up for sale in Starbucks this year. Taxis, farmers' markets, and single-day events were all cash-only until Square made it dead simple to collect credit cards. And consumers love it!
I think big things will happen in 2014, and continue to happen for the foreseeable future.
Prediction #3 -
We might start paying attention to cyber security and may start understanding it. Edward Snowden brought the conversation about encryption, hacking, and cyber security to the American living room last year. Average folks who use technology, but don't exactly understand it and taking notice. Throw in the various high-profile hacking attacks the media exposed in 2013, and it forces the discussion.
I think the security industry is ready to flood the market this year with new products and services and a side-effect of their marketing efforts will be an abundance of education. The consumer space will become more educated, demand more-transparency, and get it from the industry.
Prediction #4 -
Cables being cut by your average Joe. My girlfriend tried to cancel her Cox cable subscription this year and just keep Internet access. Cox, in an effort to save "subscriber count", gave her a years' worth of cable service for free. (And we can still count on two hands the times we've used it.) That's the sign of a product in trouble, and that's the only product the cable industry has.
We use Netflix and Hulu at home. On airplanes, we download movie rentals from iTunes. Neither of us own a DVD or Blue-ray player. It's all digital and "early adopters" have already cut the cable. I don't think we're quite that "early"; I think we're in the group of critical mass and soon everyone will be cutting cable. My parents may not cut their cable this year, but I guarantee they'll never add it at their new beach house. They might add Internet so they can watch Netflix, though.
Prediction #1 -
Home Automation will still fail to gain traction in 2014. For a guy who loves gadgets, wants to automate routine tasks, and lives in a house, I sit at the center of the Venn Diagram of people clamoring for this technology to take off. But we're just not ready.
Take something as routine as unlocking a door. In the past year we've seen at least 4 vapor-ware projects trying to tackle this (Lockitron, August, Kevo, and Goji to rattle off a few). Only one is actually available to purchase and none will be able to solve my problem.
I have what's called an "interconnected deadbolt lock" and it's regulated by my HOA so I can't change the outside at all. An interconnected deadbolt essentially lets you turn the interior handle to disengage the deadbolt. It's actually a superior ergonomic design and offers an argument for added safety.
(The argument for added safety is that in a panic, someone attempting to exit the unit might not release the deadbolt and turn the door handle. The door would obviously not open and might exacerbate panic. "Why won't it open?!?") Did I mention that these interconnected deadbolts are actually required in certain buildings per code; namely nursing homes and apartment complexes...two ripe targets for lock automation if I can think of any.
Beyond automating door locks, there are still no good ways to automate window shades, lighting, or HVAC unless you have $40k to spend on a Crestron system.
I think systems that are actually on the market and people are talking about, almost exclusively from Nest, will whet whistles, but not create an industry this year.
Prediction #2 -
Money will continue to evolve. As a child, money was rectangular green paper in a birthday card. Today it's a number on a screen. My credit cards are simply numbers. Bank accounts...numbers. We're moving away from a physical currency for our day-to-day, be that good bad or indifferent.
In 2014, we will be hearing more of Bitcoin, and expect a deluge of products like Coin to help better manage all those numbers. I still expect to see Cash4Gold commercials, and authentic reproductions of old minted silver pieces advertised on late-night TV (actually not, see Prediction #4), but our wallets will first slim, then become digital, then merge completely with our phones.
Alternative point of sale systems like Square showed up for sale in Starbucks this year. Taxis, farmers' markets, and single-day events were all cash-only until Square made it dead simple to collect credit cards. And consumers love it!
I think big things will happen in 2014, and continue to happen for the foreseeable future.
Prediction #3 -
We might start paying attention to cyber security and may start understanding it. Edward Snowden brought the conversation about encryption, hacking, and cyber security to the American living room last year. Average folks who use technology, but don't exactly understand it and taking notice. Throw in the various high-profile hacking attacks the media exposed in 2013, and it forces the discussion.
I think the security industry is ready to flood the market this year with new products and services and a side-effect of their marketing efforts will be an abundance of education. The consumer space will become more educated, demand more-transparency, and get it from the industry.
Prediction #4 -
Cables being cut by your average Joe. My girlfriend tried to cancel her Cox cable subscription this year and just keep Internet access. Cox, in an effort to save "subscriber count", gave her a years' worth of cable service for free. (And we can still count on two hands the times we've used it.) That's the sign of a product in trouble, and that's the only product the cable industry has.
We use Netflix and Hulu at home. On airplanes, we download movie rentals from iTunes. Neither of us own a DVD or Blue-ray player. It's all digital and "early adopters" have already cut the cable. I don't think we're quite that "early"; I think we're in the group of critical mass and soon everyone will be cutting cable. My parents may not cut their cable this year, but I guarantee they'll never add it at their new beach house. They might add Internet so they can watch Netflix, though.
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